Hurricanes are measured by a five number rating system called the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This scale separates storms with windspeed of more than 75 miles per hour, rating them “by the intensities of their sustained winds.” Category 1 storms produce 75 to 95 mph winds that are very dangerous and will produce some damage, but generally fixed structures are safe. Meanwhile a category 5 storm produces whopping wind speeds of 157 mph and catastrophic damage will occur.

According to Smithsonian Magazine, the most damaging hurricane to hit the United States was The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, which caused $105 million in damage, or over $178 billion today. That’s nearly double Hurricane Katrina in 2005 which is generally regarded as the most devastating hurricane. I was surprised to see how badly the city of Galveston, Texas fared in the past. In 1900, Galveston suffered 8,000 lives from a hurricane. The Smithsonian states that some put that number at 12,000! Damages amounted to $20 million.

Unfortunately, Galveston would again face a devastating hurricane in 1915, but by then the city had erected a sea wall keeping the 21-foot waves at bay, reducing the hazard. Also making that same Top 10 Worst Hurricanes List was the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. It pounded Long Island, Connecticut, and southern New England with 12- to 25-foot storm surges, claiming 600 to 800 lives and causing $300 million in damages; Today that number would be $39 billion.

Are hurricanes worse now than before? I don’t know, but I’m betting there is more risk. A “hazard” is something that has the ability to cause harm. In other words, a category 5 hurricane is far more hazardous than a category 1, because it has the potential for more damage. “Risk,” on the other hand, is the likelihood that it will cause harm. So, if a big bad cat. 5 hurricane sits far off the coast of Florida, it surely is hazardous because it has the ability to cause lots of harm. But, because it’s far from people and property, the likelihood or risk of harm is reduced.

When Galveston Texas suffered a devastating Hurricane in 1900 and reacted by building a seawall, they reduced the risk of a hazardous hurricane in 1915. We can argue whether the average hurricane today is more or less hazardous in its ability to cause harm. However, rising ocean temperature has made them riskier. Most likely, so has the fact that increased development means there are more “targets” (people and property) in their way that can be harmed. I would guess one way that hurricanes have been made less risky despite more people and property on the coasts is our ability to predict or forecast hurricanes making landfalls. Additionally, better building techniques may reduce risk as well.

Tree Targets

In any case, what has all this talk about hurricanes got to do with trees? Well, it gets back to that overused saying, “If a tree falls in the woods, does it make a sound?” My answer to this is always the same: “Yes, but who cares?”

Again, if a big bad hurricane doesn’t make landfall, it will have far less impact on people and property. A large, decayed tree – like a large hurricane – has the ability to cause harm. But, without a valuable “target” nearby, like a house, parked cars, or passersby, the risk of it causing harm is low.

This brings me back to a couple of recent conversations with Catskill Forest Association members concerned about some large trees by their home. The first thing they bring up is their fear about recent “extreme weather” and the potentially devastating impact it might have on trees near their house. Some of these members have been there for over 25 years, some have just arrived. My reply is that the weather may or may not be more extreme; I really can’t say; that is beyond my paygrade.

However, I can say that maybe the way people and trees intermingle and cohabitate has changed more. If you look at old photos of farmhouses, many of them did not include trees right next to the house, but instead further away as a windbreak. Today, people have mature trees – that were once saplings or pole-sized – growing far too close to the house. Larger, heavier trees are more hazardous than smaller ones. Many of these trees are riddled with structural defects that open-grown trees are prone to.

Examples are tight crotches where moisture, water, and decay gain a foothold. Tight crotches also serve as weak unions that are prone to splitting during storms or high winds. In other words, instead of “improvising, adapting, and overcoming” as the city of Galveston did in 1900 by building a seawall, we are opening the floodgates by letting trees grow far too close to our homes. Are weather patterns changing more, or are we increasing the likelihood of damaging high winds by building right on the beach, or letting a large tree decay outside our windows? Maybe both.

Obviously, not all large trees are equally hazardous. Have an arborist inspect it. Perhaps it needs to be pruned or cabled to reduce the risk of “failure” or from falling apart and damaging a nearby target. I find that people often complain about the weather and wonder if they always did. Humans throughout history and today seek to predict the weather, have even danced to make the God’s pity us and bring good weather.

But while waiting for the Gods to fulfill our wishes, we can do cultural things to prevent Nature’s indiscriminate impacts. For starters, I wouldn’t plant a Norway spruce, silver maple, or white pine next to the foundation. That sapling will someday become a 100-foot-tall tree. That is like Lieutenant Dan in the movie Forrest Gump climbing the boat mast and cursing at the hurricane coming his way. I guess it makes for good movies and heck, tree guys will need to make money in the future, too. Now, there are benefits to having trees near the house such as shade, wildlife habitat, privacy, noise reduction, aesthetics, soil retention and erosion control, and more. Just realize that when you plant that cute little spruce tree, think about how big it will get and give at least that distance away from your house. www.catskillforest.org

[EDITOR’S NOTE: Mr. Trapani is, of course, right that predicting the future is beyond any of our paygrades, but we feel it worth remembering that the overwhelming majority of evidence suggests that the current trend of increasingly extreme weather events will continue. Much of that expectation is based on relatively simple applications of physics and chemistry.

Just one example: Storms developing over water usually develop faster, grow stronger, and, in many cases, move slower when the water is warmer. The ocean is verifiably warmer and that trend is expected to continue as the remaining sea ice melts. Ice reflects the sun’s rays whereas dark water absorbs them, so the less ice you have, the more heat the oceans will absorb. So don’t throw out your umbrella just yet.]