Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan could replace U.S. Rep Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck) on the November ballot for New York’s 19th Congressional District. But, Democratic party officials said Tuesday, he might not.

On Saturday, May 7, the Democratic Party’s committee on vacancies for the 19th Congressional District submitted a “Certificate of Substitution” to the state Board of Elections seeking to replace Delgado, named as the state’s new lieutenant governor last week, with Ryan on the ballot for the Nov. 9 general election. But, Ulster top Dem said, that filing should not be taken as the final word on Ryan’s candidacy.

On Tuesday, Ulster County Democratic Committee Chair and committee on vacancies member Kelleigh McKenzie described the move as an effort to keep the party’s options open in November, adding that the substitution did not reflect a final decision by Democrats on Delgado’s replacement. The Certificate of Substitution — which was filed one day before a deadline to replace candidates on the November ballot — effectively transfers petitions collected by Delgado to qualify for the race to Ryan. That means if Ryan chooses to run in November, he will not have to spend time and campaign funds on his own petitioning efforts.

“The idea [of the substitution] was to just put him on there so that if he’s the candidate and if the petitions are valid, his opponent will not have the advantage of already having filed petitions,” said McKenzie. It remains unclear what Democrats will do if Ryan doesn’t end up running. Also unclear is what Delgado plans to do with the over $5 million war chest he’d amassed for what was looking like a tough re-election contest.

But in what’s shaping up to be the most chaotic election cycle in New York’s collective political memory, it’s not certain whether Delgado’s petitions will remain valid for November’s election. Unknown as of this week are the contours of the 19th Congressional District, which in its current form covers all of Ulster and all or parts of 10 other counties in an area the size of Rhode Island. Congressional and state legislative district maps are redrawn every 10 years in conjunction with the census. Last month, the state’s highest court threw out a set of district maps drafted by the Democrat-dominated state legislature, ruling that they violated an amendment to the state Constitution barring partisan gerrymandering. The issue is now in the hands of a court-appointed special master who is expected to release a new set of maps in draft form next week and a final version later this month. Courts have yet to decide whether petitions filed using the rejected district maps will remain valid, or whether every candidate will need to begin the process from scratch.

Depending on how the new districts turn out, if Ryan does decide to run, he could face Republican challenger Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro in the closely watched race that could decide which party takes the House majority next year. The document does not address a yet-to-be-scheduled special election to fill out the remainder of Delgado’s term in Congress, which ends on Dec. 31; it’s possible that Molinaro and Ryan could end up battling twice at the polls before all is said and done.

Ryan, a 40-year-old Kingston native, West Point graduate, Iraq war veteran and Gardiner resident, took office in June 2019 after winning a special election to fill out the remainder of former county executive Mike Hein’s term after Hein stepped down to take a position in the office of then-governor Andrew Cuomo. In November of the same year, he won a full four-year term as County Executive. During his tenure he's promoted a local version of a “Green New Deal” to bring investments and jobs in the renewable energy sector to Kingston. He has also overseen the expansion of mental health services in Ulster County and spearheaded an effort to find a developer to revitalize the former IBM campus in the Town of Ulster.

In a text message on Monday, county Democratic committee member, assistant deputy county executive and Ryan ally Dan Torres also described the Certificate of Substitution as a “technical procedure,” even as he touted Ryan’s strength among the upstate electorate.

“In just a few days, County Executive Ryan, a West Point graduate and combat veteran has received support from residents all over upstate New York who are inspired by his record of service and who are fearful of Washington extremism taking this seat,” Torres wrote.

The back-to-back elections, shifting district lines and uncertainty about petitions are just some of the complicating factors in an election cycle that has left even veteran political insiders on unsure footing. As it stands today, New Yorkers will see two primary elections — one on June 23 for statewide candidates like governor and lieutenant governor, and one on Aug. 23 for Congressional and state legislative candidates. The August primary will likely coincide with the special election to fill out the last months of Delgado’s term. Because the special election will use the current version of the New York 19th Congressional District map while the primary will use the new ones, voters could find themselves voting for two different candidates from the same party for the same seat on the same ballot.

Changes in district lines also mean that the winner of the special election could find themselves written into a district with an incumbent of the same party, or forced to campaign in a politically disadvantageous district where they have little name recognition and few allies.

“We can’t make any decisions about the special election or get out there as a party and support a candidate until we see those new maps,” said McKenzie.